Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | SF -425 ORST +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +27 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -9.1 (-36.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -7.0 (-34.0) | 140.9 (+12.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -7.8 (-34.8) | 143.1 (+9.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -7.5 (-34.5) | 141.7 (+11.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -6.9 (-33.9) | 141.9 (+11.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ORST 78 – 77 SF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | ORST 70 – 62 SF |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SF 74 – 72 ORST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SF 81 – 70 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#112) | -2.2 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#114) | 0.19 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#102) | 0.12 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#146) | 0.508 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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