Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SF -190 ORST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SF -0.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -1.7 (+9.3) | 142.1 (+8.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SF -2.3 (+8.7) | 141.2 (+9.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SF -1.6 (+9.4) | 143.0 (+8.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -1.6 (+9.4) | 145.0 (+6.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ORST 78 – 77 SF |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ORST 90 – 63 SF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | ORST 70 – 62 SF |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SF 74 – 72 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#74) | 10.6 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#60) | 1.61 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#68) | 2.18 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#63) | 0.547 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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