Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -165 SF +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ORST -2.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -1.2 (-3.2) | 141.1 (+4.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -1.0 (-3.0) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -1.2 (-3.2) | 141.5 (+4.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -1.0 (-3.0) | 142.7 (+3.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ORST 78 – 77 SF |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ORST 90 – 63 SF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | ORST 70 – 62 SF |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SF 81 – 70 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 17-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#79) | 8.9 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#80) | 1.89 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#81) | 2.18 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#95) | 0.585 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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