Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ORST +170 SF -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SF -3.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -3.2 (+11.2) | 143.2 (-11.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -2.1 (+10.1) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -2.8 (+10.8) | 141.9 (-9.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -4.0 (+12.0) | 141.3 (-9.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | ORST 78 – 77 SF |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ORST 90 – 63 SF |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SF 74 – 72 ORST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SF 81 – 70 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#214) | 4.2 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#186) | 0.89 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#183) | 1.51 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#218) | 0.535 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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