Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | MRMK -148 MRST +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +25 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -0.1 (+25.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -2.1 (+22.9) | 126.9 (+10.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -1.1 (+23.9) | 124.2 (+12.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -1.1 (+23.9) | 125.8 (+11.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -0.9 (+24.1) | 130.6 (+6.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MRMK 58 – 57 MRST |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MRMK 68 – 55 MRST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRMK 75 – 53 MRST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MRST 61 – 60 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#207) | 0.6 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#144) | -0.10 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#154) | -0.19 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#88) | 0.516 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 59.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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