Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -110 MRMK -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +22 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -1.0 (-23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -0.6 (-22.6) | 123.0 (+5.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -1.1 (-23.1) | 127.8 (+0.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.5 (-22.5) | 128.6 (-0.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -0.7 (-22.7) | 124.6 (+3.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MRMK 58 – 57 MRST |
| Feb 13, 2026 | MRMK 81 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MRMK 68 – 55 MRST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MRST 61 – 60 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#244) | -2.6 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#161) | -0.33 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#199) | -0.39 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#162) | 0.521 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 61.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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