Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -298 MRMK +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +13 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -12.1 (-25.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -10.2 (-23.2) | 126.4 (-3.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -8.6 (-21.6) | 131.5 (-8.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -8.6 (-21.6) | 131.4 (-8.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -9.9 (-22.9) | 128.8 (-5.8) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MRMK 58 – 57 MRST |
| Feb 13, 2026 | MRMK 81 – 56 MRST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRMK 75 – 53 MRST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MRST 61 – 60 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-0 |
| Away | 7-7 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#118) | -5.2 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#165) | 0.05 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#153) | -0.13 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#133) | 0.508 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 57.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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