Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | MRMK -200 MRST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +1 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -4.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -3.0 (-4.0) | 127.9 (-6.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MRMK -3.9 (-4.9) | 123.8 (-2.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | MRMK -3.1 (-4.1) | 122.5 (-1.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -3.5 (-4.5) | 124.5 (-3.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MRMK 58 – 57 MRST |
| Feb 13, 2026 | MRMK 81 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MRMK 68 – 55 MRST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRMK 75 – 53 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#203) | -3.8 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#171) | 0.20 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#194) | -0.20 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#123) | 0.512 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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