Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNT +120 MEM -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -2.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -2.0 (+9.0) | 135.4 (+9.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -3.1 (+10.1) | 135.1 (+9.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -2.7 (+9.7) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -2.2 (+9.2) | 136.5 (+8.5) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | MEM 57 – 48 UNT |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MEM 68 – 64 UNT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UNT 76 – 66 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#154) | 6.0 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#173) | 0.58 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#171) | 0.92 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#204) | 0.517 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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