Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -205 LT +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -5.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -3.6 (-4.6) | 133.3 (+23.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -4.0 (-5.0) | 134.7 (+22.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -3.9 (-4.9) | 134.1 (+22.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -3.9 (-4.9) | 134.1 (+22.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | LT 69 – 66 MOST |
| Feb 27, 2026 | LT 72 – 70 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#189) | -4.6 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#197) | -0.49 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#179) | -0.77 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#176) | 0.472 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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