Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -148 LEH +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEH +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -0.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -0.1 (-9.1) | 138.2 (+8.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.9 (-9.9) | 141.0 (+6.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -0.4 (-9.4) | 139.7 (+7.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.0 (-9.0) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | LEH 64 – 59 LAF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LAF 78 – 70 LEH |
| Jan 26, 2025 | LEH 86 – 47 LAF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | LEH 76 – 61 LAF |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LEH 71 – 63 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-10 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#319) | -8.5 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#336) | -1.61 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.79 (#339) | -2.54 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#339) | 0.441 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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