Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -218 LBSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +17 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -6.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -6.2 (+10.8) | 148.2 (-23.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -5.9 (+11.1) | 147.4 (-22.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -5.9 (+11.1) | 144.4 (-19.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -5.6 (+11.4) | 145.1 (-20.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UCD 76 – 70 LBSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCD 73 – 65 LBSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LBSU 84 – 73 UCD |
| Mar 17, 2024 | LBSU 74 – 70 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UCD 88 – 78 LBSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#182) | -4.9 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#144) | -1.28 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#137) | -1.28 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#152) | 0.424 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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