Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -270 LBSU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LBSU +11 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -8.1 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -4.9 (-15.9) | 135.8 (+21.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -5.5 (-16.5) | 134.9 (+22.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -4.5 (-15.5) | 134.2 (+22.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -5.1 (-16.1) | 134.1 (+22.9) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UCD 76 – 70 LBSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UCD 71 – 54 LBSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCD 73 – 65 LBSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | LBSU 74 – 70 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UCD 88 – 78 LBSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 3-11 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#245) | -8.7 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#164) | -1.27 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#187) | -1.41 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#167) | 0.432 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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