Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | LBSU +135 UCD -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LBSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -2.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -2.5 (-5.5) | 132.7 (+5.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -2.4 (-5.6) | 131.8 (+6.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -3.5 (-4.5) | 132.7 (+5.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -3.6 (-4.4) | 133.5 (+4.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UCD 76 – 70 LBSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UCD 71 – 54 LBSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LBSU 84 – 73 UCD |
| Mar 17, 2024 | LBSU 74 – 70 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UCD 88 – 78 LBSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LBSU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-11 |
| Home | 3-11 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L15 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#320) | -3.7 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#299) | 0.13 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#291) | -0.33 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#280) | 0.514 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LBSU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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