Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -115 LBSU -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LBSU +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | LBSU -0.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LBSU -0.0 (-4.0) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LBSU -0.1 (-3.9) | 144.4 (-0.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.1 (-4.1) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.3 (-4.3) | 145.9 (-1.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UCD 76 – 70 LBSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UCD 71 – 54 LBSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCD 73 – 65 LBSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LBSU 84 – 73 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UCD 88 – 78 LBSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#168) | -0.1 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#141) | 0.21 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#164) | 0.19 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#163) | 0.497 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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