Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | CARK -750 WGA +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -12.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -11.5 (+5.5) | 151.8 (-10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -10.9 (+6.1) | 148.2 (-7.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -11.1 (+5.9) | 150.3 (-9.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -11.4 (+5.6) | 149.4 (-8.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CARK 86 – 65 WGA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CARK 82 – 71 WGA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CARK 75 – 70 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 80.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#171) | -10.1 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#200) | -1.29 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#200) | -1.97 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#151) | 0.453 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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