Betting Lines
| Spread | WGA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | WGA -175 CARK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | WGA -4.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WGA -4.1 (-15.1) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WGA -2.7 (-13.7) | 144.9 (+8.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WGA -2.8 (-13.8) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WGA -3.2 (-14.2) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CARK 79 – 62 WGA |
| Jan 22, 2026 | CARK 86 – 65 WGA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CARK 75 – 70 WGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-15 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#337) | -13.1 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#339) | -2.55 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#338) | -3.25 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#337) | 0.376 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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