Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -950 MASS +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +7 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -13.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -13.0 (-6.0) | 157.3 (+33.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -12.2 (-5.2) | 156.7 (+34.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -12.5 (-5.5) | 156.9 (+34.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -13.9 (-6.9) | 157.9 (+33.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#60) | -0.8 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#64) | -0.05 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#75) | -0.12 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#50) | 0.502 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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