Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -218 PRES +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +1 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -7.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -5.9 (-6.9) | 135.2 (-20.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -6.5 (-7.5) | 135.9 (-20.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -5.9 (-6.9) | 136.6 (-21.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -6.7 (-7.7) | 136.0 (-21.0) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | PRES 71 – 70 UNCA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | PRES 64 – 59 UNCA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNCA 96 – 87 PRES |
| Feb 14, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 69 PRES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UNCA 84 – 80 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#216) | -7.5 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#244) | -1.30 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#230) | -1.98 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#207) | 0.453 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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