Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -280 PRES +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -6.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -5.6 (-10.6) | 150.0 (-27.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -6.0 (-11.0) | 146.0 (-23.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -5.2 (-10.2) | 147.4 (-24.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -4.7 (-9.7) | 149.2 (-26.2) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PRES 58 – 57 UNCA |
| Jan 15, 2026 | PRES 71 – 70 UNCA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNCA 96 – 87 PRES |
| Feb 14, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 69 PRES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UNCA 84 – 80 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#197) | -4.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#116) | -0.99 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#126) | -1.06 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#61) | 0.442 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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