Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +114 UNCA -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -2.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -1.9 (+2.9) | 135.3 (+5.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.5 (+3.5) | 134.8 (+6.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -2.5 (+3.5) | 135.2 (+5.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -2.0 (+3.0) | 135.3 (+5.7) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PRES 58 – 57 UNCA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | PRES 64 – 59 UNCA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNCA 96 – 87 PRES |
| Feb 14, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 69 PRES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UNCA 84 – 80 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#297) | -3.2 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#301) | -0.87 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#309) | -1.00 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#316) | 0.473 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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