Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -600 PRES +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -11.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -10.7 (-8.7) | 148.7 (-8.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -9.5 (-7.5) | 148.5 (-8.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -9.1 (-7.1) | 150.0 (-10.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -9.8 (-7.8) | 151.1 (-11.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PRES 58 – 57 UNCA |
| Jan 15, 2026 | PRES 71 – 70 UNCA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | PRES 64 – 59 UNCA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNCA 96 – 87 PRES |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UNCA 84 – 80 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#158) | -7.4 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#121) | -1.27 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#129) | -1.52 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#96) | 0.410 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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