Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | HARV +170 YALE -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -5.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -4.3 (+3.3) | 137.5 (+13.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -3.6 (+2.6) | 136.9 (+14.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -4.4 (+3.4) | 138.8 (+12.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -4.5 (+3.5) | 138.1 (+12.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | HARV 67 – 65 YALE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HARV 74 – 69 YALE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | YALE 84 – 55 HARV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | YALE 80 – 60 HARV |
| Jan 27, 2024 | YALE 78 – 65 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#165) | 8.0 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#196) | 1.40 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#199) | 1.57 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#167) | 0.597 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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