All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–45 on winners spread MAE 9.1 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Saint Joseph's -0.8 138.9 47% 78–69 ✓
Providence @ Villanova +9.3 143.5 80% 73–75 ✓
Robert Morris @ Green Bay -3.2 153.6 39% 89–67 ✓
Indiana @ Ohio State +9.9 149.5 82% 77–76 ✗
DePaul @ Georgetown +8.6 143.0 78% 73–68 ✗
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee +7.3 141.0 75% 64–79 ✓
Iowa @ UCLA +6.7 153.7 73% 70–94 ✓
Air Force @ Fresno State +5.0 144.4 68% 65–74 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico +0.8 158.0 53% 65–84 ✓
Alabama @ Kentucky +2.7 182.3 60% 102–97 ✗
Houston @ UCF -16.5 142.2 7% 69–68 ✓
Creighton @ UConn +8.7 150.2 79% 68–63 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Florida State +10.9 147.8 84% 78–91 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville +15.1 126.0 92% 67–81 ✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh +4.6 144.1 66% 78–75 ✗
Boston University @ Army +4.0 138.3 64% 62–68 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +9.0 135.9 79% 77–80 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia -9.5 149.2 19% 70–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Kansas +20.8 140.3 97% 74–84 ✓
American University @ Holy Cross +1.4 139.7 55% 74–65 ✗
Colgate @ Lafayette +2.4 131.7 59% 90–67 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Wagner +4.6 112.0 66% 69–65 ✗
Maine @ UMBC +0.9 154.1 53% 87–62 ✗
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy -5.3 132.9 31% 65–59 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel -2.6 134.9 41% 75–70 ✓
Buffalo @ Western Michigan +9.8 152.0 81% 85–76 ✗
Xavier @ Marquette +10.3 152.5 83% 59–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville +2.8 172.1 60% 84–93 ✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern -1.7 147.7 44% 54–58 ✗
Niagara @ Manhattan +5.3 153.1 69% 65–72 ✓
Arizona State @ Cincinnati +7.7 130.4 76% 60–67 ✓
Arizona @ Texas Tech +2.2 155.5 58% 54–70 ✓
SMU @ Miami -7.2 166.4 26% 117–74 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech -1.6 131.3 44% 72–63 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne -3.2 126.5 39% 57–75 ✗
Davidson @ Rhode Island +5.1 151.3 68% 90–92 ✓
Belmont @ Evansville -5.7 143.4 30% 85–82 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +6.3 137.4 72% 51–64 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lehigh +4.3 144.9 65% 76–60 ✗
Yale @ Columbia -5.8 157.9 30% 92–88 ✓
Harvard @ Brown +7.0 136.9 74% 80–67 ✗
Cornell @ Pennsylvania -9.8 155.2 19% 86–76 ✓
Princeton @ Dartmouth -4.8 151.7 33% 81–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Binghamton +0.2 149.0 51% 70–65 ✗
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +0.5 141.3 52% 78–70 ✗
Elon @ Delaware -1.8 153.4 43% 77–79 ✗
Monmouth @ Campbell +3.8 136.8 63% 58–81 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +12.6 135.1 87% 49–53 ✓
North Alabama @ North Florida -2.6 167.7 41% 90–84 ✓
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.2 146.6 68% 47–60 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota -0.1 145.4 50% 72–76 ✗
Toledo @ Ball State +2.5 155.6 59% 93–75 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +8.9 155.0 79% 68–62 ✗
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -10.5 138.9 17% 71–66 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Sacred Heart +2.0 133.8 57% 66–61 ✗
Canisius @ Fairfield +9.4 147.3 80% 78–67 ✗
UTEP @ Florida International -1.8 139.1 44% 81–73 ✓
Stanford @ North Carolina +12.5 161.6 87% 72–71 ✗
Le Moyne @ Chicago State -1.4 143.7 45% 72–88 ✗
Saint Louis @ Richmond -2.4 143.3 41% 63–59 ✓
Purdue @ Oregon +0.7 147.8 53% 65–58 ✗
Wisconsin @ USC -3.2 149.5 38% 84–69 ✓
Colorado @ Oklahoma State -0.3 144.8 49% 73–83 ✗
Tulsa @ South Florida +10.9 150.6 84% 56–63 ✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT +3.2 125.7 62% 59–64 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe +2.0 143.2 57% 65–60 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville +16.2 140.9 93% 62–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota -5.4 176.7 31% 103–77 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina -11.5 133.2 15% 83–55 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Kent State +4.1 136.0 65% 70–61 ✗
Siena @ Merrimack +6.2 130.2 71% 58–64 ✓
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt -6.2 142.0 29% 75–76 ✗
Georgia State @ Arkansas State +17.9 152.7 95% 59–85 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +1.5 150.3 55% 67–63 ✗
Lindenwood @ Morehead State +5.4 135.9 69% 65–82 ✓
New Orleans @ East Texas A&M +5.0 144.5 68% 82–73 ✗
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -1.9 136.4 43% 77–64 ✓
Texas @ Florida +10.5 152.7 83% 60–84 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb +11.0 161.1 84% 68–97 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -9.2 142.5 20% 72–57 ✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse -2.7 153.5 40% 69–77 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Dayton +12.1 144.0 86% 81–83 ✓
UIC @ Valparaiso +0.2 158.6 51% 81–74 ✗
Bradley @ Murray State -0.8 142.7 47% 74–61 ✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming -3.3 135.6 38% 79–63 ✓
West Georgia @ Stetson +0.4 146.8 51% 78–82 ✓
Navy @ Bucknell +7.7 146.9 76% 69–73 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson -2.7 140.4 40% 71–60 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +6.1 168.8 71% 62–85 ✓
App State @ James Madison +2.0 131.9 57% 58–50 ✗
Troy @ South Alabama +4.3 129.4 65% 63–64 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara +10.5 131.2 83% 64–60 ✗
South Carolina @ Oklahoma +6.5 142.5 72% 62–82 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +12.4 137.5 87% 80–96 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's +2.6 142.6 59% 91–57 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech +1.2 134.5 54% 77–71 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Nicholls +6.7 131.2 73% 61–73 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Houston Christian -3.5 146.2 38% 57–66 ✗
Western Illinois @ Southern Indiana +4.8 136.5 67% 66–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +1.4 132.8 55% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +7.0 149.3 74% 65–84 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +0.2 132.8 51% 65–64 ✗
Iowa State @ West Virginia -4.1 140.9 36% 57–64 ✗
Missouri State @ Illinois State +11.2 142.0 84% 68–74 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +14.7 131.0 91% 64–75 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State +11.8 150.4 86% 82–85 ✓
Northeastern @ Charleston +7.9 150.4 76% 85–87 ✓
Chattanooga @ Furman +6.0 148.8 71% 75–71 ✗
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State +5.5 157.8 69% 62–70 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State +0.3 147.1 51% 76–78 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +19.6 161.3 96% 70–84 ✓
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M +2.2 156.3 58% 79–70 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Bethune-Cookman +29.7 129.6 100% 58–83 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M -7.6 159.7 25% 69–65 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +4.0 147.4 64% 81–84 ✓
California @ NC State +6.1 148.6 71% 65–62 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State -7.2 146.5 26% 71–53 ✓
San José State @ Nevada +12.5 140.3 87% 64–75 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +11.1 135.3 84% 60–67 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word -2.6 154.0 41% 69–63 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri +5.8 149.5 70% 65–83 ✓
Portland @ Washington State +21.5 157.4 97% 70–92 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford +9.3 154.9 80% 49–69 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +6.5 159.9 72% 65–60 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Florida A&M +12.5 163.1 87% 76–86 ✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern +8.8 142.2 79% 57–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.