Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +155 VCU -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -0.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -1.1 (-10.1) | 142.6 (+4.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.4 (-9.4) | 144.1 (+2.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.7 (-9.7) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.4 (-9.4) | 143.3 (+3.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VCU 77 – 64 JOES |
| Jan 19, 2026 | VCU 79 – 72 JOES |
| Mar 16, 2024 | VCU 66 – 60 JOES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | VCU 73 – 69 JOES |
| Feb 22, 2023 | VCU 88 – 63 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#88) | 10.1 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#124) | 1.08 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#135) | 1.88 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.557 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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