Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -278 JOES +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -9.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -9.0 (+4.0) | 142.4 (-1.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -8.9 (+4.1) | 140.0 (+1.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -8.2 (+4.8) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -8.4 (+4.6) | 142.1 (-1.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | VCU 79 – 72 JOES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VCU 78 – 69 JOES |
| Mar 16, 2024 | VCU 66 – 60 JOES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | VCU 73 – 69 JOES |
| Feb 22, 2023 | VCU 88 – 63 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#47) | 2.4 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#42) | 0.98 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#45) | 1.06 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#30) | 0.550 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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