Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -133 JOES +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -1.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -1.0 (+5.0) | 137.7 (-11.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -0.1 (+5.9) | 139.1 (-13.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -0.2 (+5.8) | 139.1 (-13.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -0.3 (+5.7) | 136.8 (-10.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VCU 77 – 64 JOES |
| Jan 19, 2026 | VCU 79 – 72 JOES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VCU 78 – 69 JOES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | VCU 73 – 69 JOES |
| Feb 22, 2023 | VCU 88 – 63 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#79) | 6.2 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#81) | 1.18 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#86) | 1.34 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#61) | 0.549 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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