Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -213 JOES +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -5.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -5.5 (-1.5) | 138.8 (+3.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -6.2 (-2.2) | 141.0 (+1.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -5.1 (-1.1) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -5.7 (-1.7) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VCU 77 – 64 JOES |
| Jan 19, 2026 | VCU 79 – 72 JOES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VCU 78 – 69 JOES |
| Mar 16, 2024 | VCU 66 – 60 JOES |
| Feb 22, 2023 | VCU 88 – 63 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#84) | 5.2 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#80) | 0.90 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#84) | 1.00 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#66) | 0.539 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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