Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -1450 JOES +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -18.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -14.8 (-7.8) | 151.3 (-0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -14.5 (-7.5) | 152.0 (-1.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -14.3 (-7.3) | 148.5 (+2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -14.2 (-7.2) | 148.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VCU 77 – 64 JOES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VCU 78 – 69 JOES |
| Mar 16, 2024 | VCU 66 – 60 JOES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | VCU 73 – 69 JOES |
| Feb 22, 2023 | VCU 88 – 63 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#48) | -3.2 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#64) | 0.18 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#54) | -0.19 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#65) | 0.513 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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