Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UCLA -260 IOWA +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +24 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -5.6 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -5.8 (+18.2) | 147.7 (+16.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -5.1 (+18.9) | 150.9 (+13.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -4.3 (+19.7) | 148.5 (+15.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -5.9 (+18.1) | 152.1 (+11.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 61 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#32) | 12.5 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#55) | 2.17 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#59) | 3.04 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#61) | 0.579 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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