Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–12 on winners spread MAE 10.1 41 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Presbyterian @ High Point +13.4 149.6 89% 66–77 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +5.1 149.5 68% 75–72 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois -5.8 147.5 30% 49–73 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho +3.4 151.2 62% 76–83 ✓
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky +16.2 160.3 93% 69–72 ✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb +18.9 129.0 96% 60–88 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +5.1 133.7 68% 83–67 ✗
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian -1.5 141.9 44% 60–54 ✓
Rider @ Marist +10.8 128.0 84% 64–57 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +6.0 154.8 71% 57–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Liberty +7.8 133.1 76% 60–68 ✓
Duke @ Boston College -26.0 136.6 1% 88–63 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego State +12.8 129.0 88% 76–68 ✗
Montana @ Idaho State +4.4 143.1 65% 62–86 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona +3.1 145.4 61% 80–69 ✗
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +19.0 143.5 96% 64–68 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall -11.9 137.3 14% 79–51 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside -9.1 141.5 20% 81–85 ✗
Southern Utah @ Seattle U +8.6 146.2 78% 52–75 ✓
Tarleton State @ Grand Canyon +16.5 133.7 93% 64–88 ✓
Denver @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +20.2 159.1 97% 62–74 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M +10.6 144.5 83% 57–68 ✓
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga +15.4 164.2 92% 103–99 ✗
BYU @ Utah +0.3 154.8 51% 72–73 ✓
Montana State @ Weber State -0.3 140.2 49% 80–71 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +12.3 136.7 87% 70–77 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +20.1 156.9 97% 71–101 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -11.8 140.4 14% 74–50 ✓
Oregon State @ San Francisco +0.3 142.7 51% 70–81 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +4.4 141.8 66% 70–81 ✓
Illinois @ Michigan State -0.8 156.9 47% 78–80 ✗
Nebraska @ Maryland +10.5 148.0 83% 66–69 ✓
Tulane @ Temple +5.6 148.5 70% 77–80 ✓
Rice @ Florida Atlantic +8.4 152.5 78% 73–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Green Bay -5.5 148.3 31% 73–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan +12.3 147.3 87% 76–80 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts -0.2 162.7 49% 60–82 ✗
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis -3.1 141.9 39% 73–62 ✓
Memphis @ Charlotte -14.9 151.6 9% 77–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee +8.4 146.6 78% 81–79 ✗
TCU @ Baylor +13.1 138.5 88% 74–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.