Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -650 UNLV +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -13.6 (-21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -11.0 (-19.0) | 133.2 (+10.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -11.3 (-19.3) | 133.8 (+10.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -10.4 (-18.4) | 130.5 (+13.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -11.9 (-19.9) | 131.3 (+12.7) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNLV 62 – 58 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#40) | 3.1 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#33) | 1.05 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#32) | 1.30 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#28) | 0.539 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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