Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +150 SDSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -3.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -1.7 (+8.7) | 132.8 (+8.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -1.1 (+8.1) | 130.0 (+11.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.9 (+7.9) | 129.3 (+11.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.8 (+7.8) | 132.0 (+9.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNLV 62 – 58 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#97) | 11.4 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#93) | 2.36 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#84) | 2.98 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#105) | 0.600 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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