Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +155 SDSU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -3.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.9 (-2.1) | 135.5 (+9.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -1.3 (-1.7) | 134.4 (+10.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -0.9 (-2.1) | 133.6 (+11.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.9 (-2.1) | 132.8 (+12.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNLV 62 – 58 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#75) | 13.6 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#67) | 2.34 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#72) | 2.94 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#51) | 0.622 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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