I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
UNLV Rebels
71 74 OT
FINAL Conference Mountain West
San Diego State Aztecs
Mountain West Conference · Thomas & Mack Center · March 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -4.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Money UNLV +155 / SDSU -200
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNLV win
Actual SDSU +3 145 Lost
Massey SDSU -3.0 (+0.0)
Massey Totals 137.5 (+7.5)
Bradley-Terry 45%
Weighted B-T 37%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -1.3 (-1.7) 134.4 (+10.6) 47%
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -0.9 (-2.1) 133.6 (+11.4) 47%
Baseline ML SDSU -0.9 (-2.1) 132.8 (+12.2) 49%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -0.9 (-2.1) 135.5 (+9.5) 51%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 SDSU 8986 UNLV
Jan 24, 2026 SDSU 8271 UNLV
Mar 5, 2025 UNLV 7467 SDSU
Jan 19, 2025 UNLV 7668 SDSU
Mar 6, 2024 UNLV 6258 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNLV SDSU
Overall 21-13 26-11
Conference 12-6 11-7
Home 12-5 14-1
Away 8-4 6-8
Neutral 1-4 6-2
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.9 73.7
Avg Pts Against 69.8 67.4
Massey 7.4 (#75) 13.6 (#22)
Bradley-Terry 1.54 (#67) 2.34 (#22)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.73 (#72) 2.94 (#20)
RPI 0.577 (#51) 0.622 (#9)
Shooting & Four Factors UNLV SDSU
FG% 45.5% 44.4%
3PT% 33.1% 31.7%
REB / G 32.7 36.9
OREB / G 9.9 11.0
AST / TO 1.16 1.18
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.3% 50.4%
TOV% 16.2% 16.2%
ORB% 30.0% 31.8%
FT Rate 24.4% 27.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 18.5%
DRB% 68.8% 72.2%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 22.3%

Game Analysis

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