Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -485 UNLV +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -10.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -10.0 (-7.0) | 157.2 (+17.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -9.7 (-6.7) | 156.3 (+18.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -10.8 (-7.8) | 153.7 (+21.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -9.6 (-6.6) | 156.1 (+18.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNLV 62 – 58 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#48) | 3.7 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#59) | 0.73 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#53) | 0.85 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#55) | 0.528 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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