I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
San Diego State Aztecs
89 86
FINAL Conference
UNLV Rebels
Mountain West Conference · Viejas Arena · March 7, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -9.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money SDSU -485 / UNLV +370
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +3 175 Won
Massey SDSU -10.9 (-7.9)
Massey Totals 160.1 (+14.9)
Bradley-Terry 82%
Weighted B-T 89%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -9.7 (-6.7) 156.3 (+18.7) 83%
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -10.8 (-7.8) 153.7 (+21.3) 83%
Baseline ML SDSU -9.6 (-6.6) 156.1 (+18.9) 83%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -10.0 (-7.0) 157.2 (+17.8) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 24, 2026 SDSU 8271 UNLV
Mar 5, 2025 UNLV 7467 SDSU
Jan 19, 2025 UNLV 7668 SDSU
Mar 14, 2024 SDSU 7471 UNLV
Mar 6, 2024 UNLV 6258 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU UNLV
Overall 22-11 18-17
Conference 14-6 11-9
Home 14-2 10-6
Away 5-5 7-7
Neutral 3-4 1-4
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.8 78.6
Avg Pts Against 71.3 79.3
Massey 11.6 (#48) 3.7 (#112)
Bradley-Terry 1.72 (#59) 0.73 (#102)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.36 (#53) 0.85 (#108)
RPI 0.571 (#55) 0.528 (#119)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU UNLV
FG% 46.9% 47.2%
3PT% 35.3% 34.9%
REB / G 34.1 34.6
OREB / G 9.5 10.9
AST / TO 1.25 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 53.4%
TOV% 17.0% 16.8%
ORB% 29.2% 31.2%
FT Rate 28.2% 28.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.3% 52.6%
Opp TOV% 20.9% 17.6%
DRB% 68.7% 68.7%
Opp FT Rate 29.4% 34.2%

Game Analysis

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