Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +154 SDSU -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -4.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -4.1 (-6.9) | 152.3 (+0.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -2.8 (-8.2) | 150.9 (+2.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -4.2 (-6.8) | 148.9 (+4.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -3.9 (-7.1) | 149.5 (+3.5) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNLV 62 – 58 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#130) | 10.6 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#123) | 1.99 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#130) | 2.97 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#121) | 0.598 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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