Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +125 SDSU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -3.6 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -1.3 (+5.3) | 134.1 (-14.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -1.1 (+5.1) | 134.3 (-14.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.6 (+4.6) | 132.8 (-12.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.9 (+4.9) | 135.4 (-15.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#82) | 14.1 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#71) | 2.59 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#80) | 3.13 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#50) | 0.642 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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