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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–6 on winners
spread MAE 5.9
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Francis
@
Wagner
|
+0.7 | 122.4 | 53% | 68–70 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
UNC Wilmington
|
+5.9 | 159.9 | 70% | 74–85 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Cornell
|
+10.0 | 157.4 | 82% | 83–82 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Harvard
|
+9.2 | 136.6 | 80% | 82–67 | ✗ |
Columbia
@
Princeton
|
+5.8 | 157.8 | 70% | 67–71 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+6.9 | 150.0 | 73% | 78–70 | ✗ |
Mercyhurst
@
Long Island University
|
+9.4 | 127.0 | 80% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Yale
|
+19.9 | 155.8 | 96% | 67–83 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Northwestern State
|
+10.0 | 144.7 | 82% | 61–73 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Nicholls
|
+4.0 | 141.0 | 64% | 78–74 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
East Texas A&M
|
-7.1 | 133.9 | 26% | 76–68 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Drexel
|
+3.1 | 120.5 | 61% | 55–60 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Texas Southern
|
+2.5 | 145.4 | 59% | 73–81 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
McNeese
|
+17.3 | 124.1 | 94% | 59–79 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
New Mexico
|
+22.7 | 164.0 | 98% | 67–95 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Incarnate Word
|
+0.6 | 149.6 | 52% | 85–78 | ✗ |
Georgetown
@
Villanova
|
+7.9 | 141.1 | 76% | 64–63 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Penn State
|
+9.4 | 162.2 | 80% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.