Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UIW -170 RGV +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +7 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -0.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -1.6 (-8.6) | 145.6 (+17.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -0.5 (-7.5) | 142.0 (+21.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -0.1 (-7.1) | 142.2 (+20.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -1.0 (-8.0) | 143.3 (+19.7) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | RGV 106 – 93 UIW |
| Jan 6, 2026 | RGV 80 – 67 UIW |
| Feb 18, 2025 | UIW 66 – 60 RGV |
| Dec 31, 2023 | RGV 77 – 74 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#252) | -2.2 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#315) | -0.61 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#303) | -0.96 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#331) | 0.467 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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