Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -195 UIW +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -5.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -5.1 (-11.1) | 143.1 (-17.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -4.7 (-10.7) | 142.9 (-16.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -4.5 (-10.5) | 142.9 (-16.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -4.2 (-10.2) | 144.0 (-18.0) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | RGV 106 – 93 UIW |
| Jan 6, 2026 | RGV 80 – 67 UIW |
| Jan 20, 2025 | RGV 85 – 78 UIW |
| Dec 31, 2023 | RGV 77 – 74 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#217) | -5.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#241) | -1.62 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#239) | -1.73 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#233) | 0.420 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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