Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | RGV -112 UIW -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -1.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -0.5 (+12.5) | 138.3 (+8.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -0.6 (+12.4) | 138.6 (+8.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -0.0 (+13.0) | 139.8 (+7.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -0.2 (+13.2) | 140.1 (+6.9) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | RGV 106 – 93 UIW |
| Feb 18, 2025 | UIW 66 – 60 RGV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | RGV 85 – 78 UIW |
| Dec 31, 2023 | RGV 77 – 74 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-8 | 7-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#182) | 1.5 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#268) | -0.37 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#249) | -0.27 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#274) | 0.470 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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