Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -195 JKST +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -2.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -1.0 (+7.0) | 141.9 (+12.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -0.1 (+7.9) | 144.2 (+9.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -0.8 (+7.2) | 144.3 (+9.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -1.0 (+7.0) | 142.5 (+11.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TXSO 82 – 57 JKST |
| Jan 20, 2026 | JKST 94 – 89 TXSO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | JKST 67 – 52 TXSO |
| Mar 14, 2024 | TXSO 73 – 62 JKST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TXSO 80 – 70 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-1 |
| Away | 6-12 | 6-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#315) | -8.4 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#328) | -0.87 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#332) | -1.16 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#324) | 0.496 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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