Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | JKST -142 TXSO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +5 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -1.3 (+3.7) | 149.3 (+33.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -1.8 (+3.2) | 149.6 (+33.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -1.0 (+4.0) | 151.2 (+31.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -1.3 (+3.7) | 149.7 (+33.3) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TXSO 82 – 57 JKST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | JKST 67 – 52 TXSO |
| Jan 20, 2025 | TXSO 81 – 73 JKST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | TXSO 73 – 62 JKST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TXSO 80 – 70 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-15 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.8 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -17.1 (#356) | -14.5 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#304) | -2.63 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#312) | -4.07 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#273) | 0.392 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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