Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JKST -170 TXSO +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +15 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -3.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -2.7 (+12.3) | 142.9 (-23.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -3.3 (+11.7) | 145.1 (-26.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -2.5 (+12.5) | 145.5 (-26.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -3.8 (+11.2) | 144.2 (-25.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TXSO 82 – 57 JKST |
| Jan 20, 2026 | JKST 94 – 89 TXSO |
| Jan 20, 2025 | TXSO 81 – 73 JKST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | TXSO 73 – 62 JKST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TXSO 80 – 70 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-15 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#278) | -7.7 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#270) | -1.74 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#272) | -1.81 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#207) | 0.442 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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