Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -165 HOF +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +5 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -3.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -2.3 (+2.7) | 126.9 (-11.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -2.0 (+3.0) | 126.2 (-11.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -1.0 (+4.0) | 123.3 (-8.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -1.5 (+3.5) | 125.6 (-10.6) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HOF 62 – 51 DREX |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOF 70 – 67 DREX |
| Feb 23, 2024 | HOF 69 – 57 DREX |
| Feb 16, 2024 | DREX 79 – 77 HOF |
| Feb 14, 2023 | HOF 66 – 52 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#198) | -1.4 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#220) | 0.35 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#218) | 0.23 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#232) | 0.541 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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