Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | HOF -188 DREX +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -2.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -3.4 (+8.6) | 135.7 (-9.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -2.8 (+9.2) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -4.0 (+8.0) | 134.1 (-8.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -3.9 (+8.1) | 135.4 (-9.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HOF 62 – 51 DREX |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOF 70 – 67 DREX |
| Jan 20, 2025 | DREX 60 – 55 HOF |
| Feb 16, 2024 | DREX 79 – 77 HOF |
| Feb 14, 2023 | HOF 66 – 52 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#133) | 3.1 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#141) | 0.37 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#131) | 0.41 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#114) | 0.527 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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