Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -10000 FRES +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +28 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -20.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -19.8 (+8.2) | 161.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -16.2 (+11.8) | 155.2 (+6.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -17.9 (+10.1) | 155.2 (+6.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -17.8 (+10.2) | 157.2 (+4.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UNM 94 – 80 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#52) | -6.1 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#47) | -1.25 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#32) | -1.59 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#36) | 0.437 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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