Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +900 UNM -1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +14 | 192 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -11.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -10.6 (-3.4) | 159.8 (+32.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -10.6 (-3.4) | 163.4 (+28.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -11.1 (-2.9) | 159.7 (+32.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -11.4 (-2.6) | 161.1 (+30.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UNM 94 – 80 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 17-3 |
| Home | 5-9 | 15-1 |
| Away | 1-14 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#278) | 8.8 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#294) | 1.83 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#287) | 2.67 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#304) | 0.572 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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