Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +380 UNM -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +2 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -7.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -6.4 (+4.4) | 148.7 (+9.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -6.0 (+4.0) | 147.5 (+10.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -6.4 (+4.4) | 147.3 (+10.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -5.5 (+3.5) | 146.7 (+11.3) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UNM 94 – 80 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 17-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#129) | 12.7 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#156) | 2.08 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#146) | 2.74 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#193) | 0.588 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.