Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -4000 FRES +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -19.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -15.7 (+5.3) | 149.1 (-12.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -16.5 (+4.5) | 147.7 (-10.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -15.8 (+5.2) | 149.8 (-12.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -15.0 (+6.0) | 149.9 (-12.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UNM 94 – 80 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#23) | -2.5 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#32) | -0.27 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#33) | -0.27 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#26) | 0.472 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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